261 Washington +3
I’ve always used rushing stats as a jumping off point in my analysis and doing so has been of particular value in the bowl games. The single strongest stat angle has been bowl underdogs that allow less than 100 yards per game on the ground. This goes back roughly 30 years and the number of losing seasons can be counted on one hand. The reason is works is simple enough. Teams with this level of rushing defense are virtually always good teams and they therefore are rarely placed in the role of underdog, even in bowl games. The record I have for these teams is 58-20 ATS, and there’s one team that will qualify this season. That’s Washington. The Huskies, not surprisingly, also fit on some other angles pertaining to rushing stats. If it isn’t broken, don’t try to fix it, and I certainly won’t here. Washington plus the points in the Fiesta Bowl is the choice.